Supply-constrained physical and people resources AGI will bid up after RSI hits diminishing returns.
Premise: Once recursive self-improvement matures, the binding constraint shifts from cognition to the physical world. Energy, atoms, robots, sensors, bio infrastructure, and data-center capacity become the new bottlenecks.
Question: What can one acquire today — before the bid arrives — where supply genuinely cannot scale to meet AGI-era demand?
TopSK Hynix 000660.KS · TSM · Lasertec 6920.T
SK Hynix at ~13x P/E despite 70% of NVIDIA Rubin HBM4 allocation in a market sold out through 2028.
TopVST · Mitsubishi Heavy 7011.T · Fluence FLNC
MHI at ~22x P/E vs GEV at ~50x — same gas-turbine backlog, half the multiple.
TopNabtesco 6268.T · MP Materials · Hyundai 005380.KS
Deliberately excluded Harmonic Drive: 471x P/E prices in 5+ years of bullish humanoid demand.
TopMP Materials · Cameco + SPUT · Ivanhoe IVN
NdPr oxide +155% YTD 2026 not in equity prices; MOFCOM licensing creates 30-60% US domestic premium.
TopTwist TWST · Sartorius + Repligen · Danaher
Isomorphic's $2.1B May raise hasn't priced into picks-and-shovels yet; tools still trade like 2023 bear.
TopSamsara IOT · Tempus TEM · Mobileye MBLY
Planet PL +1,478% YoY — the EO satellite thesis is already substantially priced in.
TopNabtesco 6268.T · THK 6481.T · Keyence 6861.T
Eaton has 228 GW data-center backlog — 12 years at 2025 build rates.
TopHD Hyundai Electric 267260.KS · Hammond Power HPS.A.TO · GE Vernova
Vertiv stopped disclosing quarterly backlog in late 2025 — right when investors need it most.
| Track | #1 pick | Conviction | Key thesis (one line) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Compute substrate | SK Hynix 000660.KS | High | HBM monopoly priced like cyclical DRAM |
| Energy & grid | VST | High | Merchant power into AI demand pricing |
| Robotics | Nabtesco 6268.T | High | RV-reducer monopoly, industrial multiple |
| Materials & mining | MP Materials | High | Only Western NdPr→NdFeB vertical |
| Biology & cloud labs | Twist TWST | High | TSMC of DNA synthesis, FY26 +17% |
| Real-world data | Samsara IOT | High | Fleet telematics dataset is irreplaceable |
| Manufacturing | Nabtesco 6268.T | High | Same as robotics — cross-confirmed |
| Data center infra | HD Hyundai Electric 267260.KS | 9/10 | Less-crowded vs US-listed transformer peers |